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Water & Climate Change
Objective 6: Ensure Adequate Water Resources & Plan for Climate Change
Relevant Standards
- Maintain 100-year Adequate Water Supply Designation as administered by the AZ Department of Water Resources
- Ensure that the risk of a sustained water delivery shortage is extremely low
- Continue to build resiliency in water supplies and infrastructure systems with specific attention to the forecasted effects of climate change
- Maintain a diverse and redundant water-supply portfolio, including optimizing the use of reclaimed water
- Encourage efficient water use while maintaining quality of life
- Conduct water loss assessments, per AWWA standard
Background
Flagstaff’s water supply currently comes from three sources, Upper Lake Mary, pumping water from deep aquifers (approximately 1000-2,000 feet below the ground), and reclaimed water. Upper Lake Mary has always been a highly variable supply, its yield determined by yearly snowpack and precipitation. The deep well aquifers have provided a reliable source of high-quality water. Flagstaff residents and businesses have cut water use per-capita by over 50% since 1989.
Challenge/Opportunity
- Climate change models indicate accelerating uncertainty about yearly snowpack and precipitation, potentially decreasing the availability of Upper Lake Mary as a water resource and impacting aquifer levels.
- Loss of Upper Lake Mary would increase costs due to pumping of additional groundwater and trigger the search for a new water resource.
- Although Flagstaff currently maintains its 100-year Adequate Water Supply Designation, the City pumps more groundwater in certain well fields than is naturally replenished by snowpack and rain.
- Future natural replenishment could decrease significantly with climate change.
- Increased temperatures and “longer summers” will increase overall water demand.
- Water resources planning and engineering codes must consider future conservation efforts, including the effects of “demand hardening” on supply reliability and the impacts on wastewater collection and treatment.
Timing Concerns
Climate change is accelerating, resulting in increased uncertainty in water supply issues, indicating more aggressive planning and communications should begin now.
Water Services Strategic Plan 2025 | ||||
Objective 6: Ensure Adequate Water Resources and Plan for Climate Change |
| Reporting Period: January - June 2021 | Reporting Period: July- December 2021 |
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Specific Responses | Champion & TEAM | Accomplishments | Accomplishments | Next Steps |
Update planning with respect to Flagstaff’s water resource and climate change impacts, including updating the risks associated with current water resources and the 100-year supply designation (Water Resources Master Plan) | Water Resources Manager | Flagstaff is approaching it’s 10-year update with ADWR (2023). Erin has drafted an update to provide to City Council, in review with Brad Hill. | An update to the CM and City Council is about 80% draft. WR Story & Standards are in final review. Will schedule water commission review in Spring/Summer. | Create a water balance model |
Update predictions on the ongoing yield of Upper Lake Mary based on climate change considerations Increase monitoring and management of aquifer water levels through strategic operations and better understanding of recharge rates and its locations |
| The Water Resources Technician will begin this work in the fall, including installing three new stage gauges in the upper and lower lake mary watersheds. The work is covered by a grant from the National Park Service | Added 3 additional monitoring locations in the ULM and LLM watersheds. | Assess if we have collected enough data to calibrate a watershed model of the ULM watershed. Install three new gauges in ULM and LLM watersheds |
Continue promoting water-use efficiency, as per the adopted 2020 Water Conservation Strategic Plan Increase the use of reclaimed water, including recharge to augment groundwater supplies and evaluating other options, such as Direct Potable Reuse |
| Reclaimed Water Master Plan Phase I with B&C was completed. Water Resources to work with Director on bringing reclaimed water policy topics tocity council for input. Conservation will pick up the Implementation Plan once fully staffed | Proposing to move forward with streambed recharge and recharge and recovery permit, towards drought proofind groundwater. Conservation to present implementation plan to several commissions. | Schedule a retreat with City Council. |
Develop measures that establish a sustainable water budget, or safe yield of groundwater by 2033 (the 20-year period established by ADWR in the Adequate Water Supply Designation) |
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| N/A | Work on creating a general water balance model |
Work to foster a continued community conservation ethic to ensure future supply reliability (considering the impacts of demand hardening on reliability, the wastewater treatment system, and reclaimed water). |
| Conservation was short staffed during this time but will resume with staffing in the fall. | Gearing up for an in-person Water Awareness Month and celebrative water professionals appreciation week |
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Maximize the use of GIS to organize data with respect to geographic location |
| We completed a GIS-based water demand model, still in draft form | Need revince the water demand model. Will develop a scope of work in the spring. | Make this a living GIS for staff to access |
Enhance communications on climate change and water resources, including clearing up confusion related to the difference between infrastructure and water resource limitations |
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| Developing education and policy related to climate change |
Water Services Strategic Plan 2025 | 2020 Accomplishments | |||
Objective 6: Ensure Adequate Water Resources and Plan for Climate Change | Reporting Period: January-June 2020 | Reporting Period: July-December 2020 | ||
Specific Responses | Champion & TEAM | Accomplishments | Accomplishments | Next Steps |
Update planning with respect to Flagstaff’s water resource and climate change impacts, including updating the risks associated with current water resources and the 100-year supply designation (Water Resources Master Plan) | Water Resources Manager | Consultant provided a scope to assiste WRM with planning. John R. and EMY have had several meetings in 2021. | Create a water balance model | |
Update predictions on the ongoing yield of Upper Lake Mary based on climate change considerations Increase monitoring and management of aquifer water levels through strategic operations and better understanding of recharge rates and its locations | Reviewing report from CLIMAS staff. | |||
Continue promoting water-use efficiency, as per the adopted 2020 Water Conservation Strategic Plan Increase the use of reclaimed water, including recharge to augment groundwater supplies and evaluating other options, such as Direct Potable Reuse | Working on implementation plan for WCSP. Submitted the Leadership Board application to Alliance for Water Efficiency. | Water Production produced over 1 billion gallons surface water, higher than any year since 2011 and only achieved 20 times in Flagstaff's history; reducing demand on all groundwater aquifers. | Working with Brown and Caldwell on reclaimed water master plan and step of forming a community steering committee on reuse in flagstaff. | |
Develop measures that establish a sustainable water budget, or safe yield of groundwater by 2033 (the 20-year period established by ADWR in the Adequate Water Supply Designation) | Working with John R., to frame water resources story. | Work on creating a general water balance model | ||
Work to foster a continued community conservation ethic to ensure future supply reliability (considering the impacts of demand hardening on reliability, the wastewater treatment system, and reclaimed water). | Water Conservation programming continues - developing measures with the Water Conservation Implementation Plan | |||
Maximize the use of GIS to organize data with respect to geographic location | Have made progress on a water demand model, with EHS. | |||
Enhance communications on climate change and water resources, including clearing up confusion related to the difference between infrastructure and water resource limitations | Working with consultant on this topic. | Developing education and policy related to climate change |